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Tuesday, July 14, 2026 · about a 2 minute read

When AI Gets the Right Answer the Wrong Way

Today's research keeps circling the same uncomfortable truth: a model that looks correct on the outside can be quietly broken on the inside.

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arXiv cs.CLResearch
Diagnosing and Mitigating Thinking Collapse in On-Policy Self-Distillation

Researchers identified a failure they call thinking collapse, where a model trained to improve its own reasoning on the fly ends up reasoning less over time on hard problems. It is a useful reminder that training a model on its own outputs is a bit like a student who only studies their own notes, and eventually stops learning anything new.

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arXiv cs.CLResearch
Silent Failures in Quantized LLM Reasoning: A Taxonomy-Based Analysis of Hollow Convergence and Failure Mode Shifts

Quantization is the process of shrinking a model by rounding off precise numbers to cruder ones, like converting a finely tuned kitchen scale to one that only shows whole pounds. The model takes up less space and runs faster, and on a simple test it might weigh your flour just fine. But on a complex recipe the rounding errors add up in ways the scale itself cannot tell you about. This paper puts a name and a taxonomy to those invisible errors, which is the first step toward catching them before they matter.

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Want the slow, plain-English version of why this matters? This is exactly the kind of idea the book was written to unpack, one light-switch analogy at a time.JPWExplained properly in the book
Simon WillisonTools
datasette code-frequency chart on GitHub

Simon Willison charted his own code output over time and found a visible jump that lines up with when he started using stronger coding assistants. It is a small, honest, personal data point, which is a rarer thing in AI discourse than it should be.

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Just Predicting Words book cover

The book behind this newsletter

Just Predicting Words

How ChatGPT, Claude, and Modern AI Actually Work

The trick is small. The world it built is not.

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